Implied Probability Calculator

How to Compare Implied Probability to Fair Odds

The Implied Probability Calculator helps bettors evaluate the true value of a betting market by comparing the implied probability derived from sportsbook odds with the actual fair probability—that is, the chance of winning without the vig or juice.

Implied probability is the percentage chance of an outcome occurring based on the odds provided by a sportsbook. However, these odds often include the bookmaker’s built-in margin. By using our tool, you can remove the vig and reveal the fair odds, allowing for a more accurate assessment of value.

When the implied probability from the sportsbook is lower than your estimated fair win probability, you’ve found a +EV bet—a wager with positive expected value. This means you're getting better odds than the market suggests, which is key to long-term profitability.

At Mysports.AI, we encourage smart betting—not just picking winners, but identifying opportunities where the odds misrepresent a team’s actual chances of winning. That’s how you gain a real edge.

By comparing market odds to no-vig fair odds, bettors can consistently spot value bets. This is the core of professional betting strategy—only wager when the probability of winning exceeds the implied probability baked into the line.