Best Betting Strategies of Sports Betting
INDEX
The Advantages of Using Betting Strategies
Enhance your chances of winning and minimize potential losses through effective strategies. In today's world of sports betting, the importance of betting strategies cannot be overstated. According to user sports data reports provided by Las Vegas from 2009 to 2023, winning players can be divided into two categories: those who play only once and quit after a win, and those who use formulated strategies. While sports betting involves an element of probability, executing a stable strategy is the key to long-term profitability.
Here are the results of three users implementing betting strategies:
| Name | Not Used (Per Year) | Betting Strategy | Used (Per Year) | Growth | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John | -224 units | Kelly Criterion | +180 units | +404% | 15% |
| Jacob | -150 units | Expected Value Betting | +68 units | +218% | 11% |
| Mila | -60 units | Early Sell-out | +58 units | +118% | 7% |
Whether you are a seasoned player or looking to increase profits in sports betting, the following series of strategies applicable to sports betting will be introduced. These strategies are defined based on the principles of data analysis in the sports betting market and odds logic. Additionally, advanced betting strategies used by professional gamblers, whose effectiveness has been widely verified, will also be introduced. Through the application of these strategies, players can make more rational and logical bets, reducing the risks associated with blind betting.
In the data of over millions of bettors provided by Bet365, winners share some commonalities. The big premise of betting strategies is that you must believe in one thing: it is impossible to win every time in gambling. However, executing a reasonable strategy can effectively increase the chances of profitability. The complexity of the sports event process is influenced by many factors, providing opportunities to create profit space through professional knowledge and strategies.
We emphasize the core role of strategies in sports betting and provide a range of practical strategies for your reference. Through the backtesting results of these strategies, bettors can find potential profit opportunities in this challenging field.
The steps to set up a suitable betting strategy are:
- Step 1: Identify common failed strategies in the market, analyze the logic, and find problem points.
- Step 2: Familiarize yourself with several crucial points of sports betting strategies.
- Step 3: Understand the most popular risk-free arbitrage strategies in recent years.
- Step 4: Use artificial intelligence to create your unique betting strategy.
Three Not Recommended Betting Strategies
1. Martingale Strategy:
The Martingale strategy is a well-known betting strategy where, after each loss, the next bet amount is doubled. The goal is to recover all previous losses and make a profit equal to the initial bet when winning. However, this strategy comes with significant risks.
Capital Risk: Consecutive losses can quickly deplete the bettor's funds.
Betting Limits: Most casinos and gambling platforms have betting limits, which may prevent bettors from continuing to use the Martingale strategy.
Risk-Reward Imbalance: This strategy requires significant risk for relatively small profits. The betting expected value is negative, making it an economically unfavorable investment.
2. Parlay Betting:
Parlay betting involves combining multiple betting selections into one wager, requiring all selections to win for the entire bet to be successful. While the appeal lies in potential high returns and the odds, the risk is equally high.
Accumulated Risk: With each added selection, the likelihood of the entire bet failing increases. For example, if each individual selection has a 50% success rate, a 2-leg parlay has a 25% success rate (50%*50%=25%), and a 3-leg parlay has a 12.5% success rate (50%*50%*50%=12.5%).
Psychological Pressure: This betting method adds extra psychological pressure, as a single incorrect selection leads to the entire bet being lost.
3. Floating Bankroll Strategy:
The floating bankroll strategy involves adjusting bet amounts based on past performance or confidence levels. While this method can be effective in certain situations, it has notable limitations.
Lack of Consistency: Inconsistent bet amounts may make it challenging to decide on appropriate stakes and predict overall performance. Even with a 60% win rate, uneven results in wins and losses may lead to an overall loss.
Emotion-Driven: Bet amounts may be influenced by emotional fluctuations, affecting rational decision-making.
Difficulty in Fund Management:：Variable bet amounts make fund management more complex, especially during a streak of consecutive losses.
In conclusion, while these three strategies may seem appealing in certain scenarios, their high risks and unpredictability make them generally unsuitable for long-term, stable betting. Adopting more robust strategies based on thorough research and data analysis is preferable for achieving long-term profitability and capital growth in sports betting.
Basic Principles of Gambling Betting Strategies
1. Capital Management:
View sports betting as a long-term investment where you invest not only money but, more importantly, time for research and analysis. Successful gambling relies not only on luck, but also on a profound understanding of data and the effective execution of strategies. Throughout this process, your goal is to achieve a positive return on investment, exchanging smaller risks for larger profit opportunities.
In sports gambling, capital management is the key to success. It is recommended to employ a betting expectancy system to control the size of your wagers, effectively managing your gambling budget. For instance, allocate one unit of capital for bets with an expectancy greater than 0, and for those considered to have higher potential value, where the expectancy exceeds 30, you can moderately increase it to a maximum of 3 units. This system helps maintain a balance of funds when facing different levels of risk.
💡 How to Calculate Betting Expected Value (EV) ?
For example, set 1% of your initial capital as 1 unit. So, if your capital is $10,000, each unit represents a $100 wager. Depending on the feasibility of replenishing your funds and your risk tolerance, this ratio can be adjusted appropriately. Overall, this is a logical and reasonable start to controlling risk, helping safeguard your funds from significant losses, and providing a foundation for successful betting. Gambling is a long-term investment. Through rigorous capital management and thoughtful betting strategies, you will gradually realize your investment goals in this challenging field.
Initial Capital: $10,000 Wager Amount per Unit: $100 ($10,000 ÷ 100)
Define:
Bet 1 unit for EV greater than 0
Bet 2 units for EV greater than 20
Bet 3 units for EV greater than 30
Test Example:
| Time | Away Team | Home Team | Away Team EV | Home Team EV | Betting Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-01 | Lakers | Heat | 20.34 | -32 | Lakers * 2 Units |
| 2023-11-01 | Nuggets | 76ers | -53.2 | 65.2 | 76ers * 3 Units |
If we solely rely on the expectancy betting strategy, based on the data above, our bets would be as follows:
Bet 2 units on the Lakers
Bet 3 units on the 76ers
2. Understand the Meaning Behind Odds
In order to make optimal betting decisions, it is crucial to have a deep understanding of the concept of odds and what they represent. Odds not only express the likelihood of a particular outcome but also reflect the potential return of the bet. Taking the example of a coin toss, where the probability of heads or tails is 50%, in gambling, this is often represented as even odds or 2.00.
Odds are dynamic and subject to adjustments based on various factors. These factors can be broadly categorized into two types:
Bookmaker Balancing: When a significant amount of bets concentrates on a particular outcome, the bookmakers adjust the odds to balance the risk. This means that odds dynamically change based on the behavior of bettors, reflecting the overall market trends. Specifically, the bookmaker is the one least interested in betting against you. They want one person to bet on one team and another on the opposing team, ensuring that regardless of the outcome, the bookmaker profits from the odds difference. 💡 What is the bookmaker's odds difference?
Event Variables: These are factors directly affecting the outcome of an event. For instance, in sports betting, an injury to a key player or changes in weather conditions can lead to fluctuations in odds. In horse racing, track conditions (such as wet or dry) significantly impact the performance of horses, thereby influencing odds.
3. Find the Best Betting Opportunities
In order to accurately identify the best betting opportunities, a thorough analysis and understanding of a vast amount of sports data become crucial. When dealing with data in the range of tens of millions, traditional manual analysis methods are clearly inadequate, necessitating more efficient technological means.
The solution here lies in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning techniques. AI can be trained on extensive data to learn to recognize and decipher complex patterns and trends. In the realm of sports betting, this means AI can analyze past match outcomes, player performances, team conditions, and countless other variables to predict future match results.
Deep learning, a branch of AI, excels in learning and extracting useful features from large datasets. These features may include player performance statistics, team historical win rates, or even the weather conditions on the day of the match. Deep learning models train themselves on this data to build intricate mathematical models, enabling them to predict future match outcomes.
The advantage of using AI for this analysis lies in its efficiency and accuracy. It can rapidly process and analyze vast amounts of data, and over time, as more data accumulates, its predictive capabilities gradually improve. This is a significant advancement in finding the best betting opportunities as it provides data-driven insights, assisting bettors in making wiser decisions.
In summary, by harnessing AI and deep learning technologies, we can extract key win rate analyses of massive sports data, significantly increasing the likelihood of selecting the best betting opportunities in sports gambling.
4. Avoid Parlay Betting
While parlay betting is renowned for the potential to win substantial jackpots with small wagers, it is advisable for bettors seeking long-term, stable profits in online betting to steer clear of this method. We must recognize that parlay betting is a high-risk strategy and should be approached with caution.
The primary reason for this caution lies in the typically low success rate of parlay bets. While occasional strokes of luck may result in remarkable profits, in the long run, such bets often lead to larger overall losses. Especially for bettors with limited funds or those just entering the gambling arena, parlay betting can swiftly deplete your funds, with a low win rate that may cast doubt on your choices and pose a threat to your financial security.
We recommend bettors to opt for more conservative betting strategies, such as straight bets. This method usually provides more manageable risks and a more stable potential for returns, helping achieve long-term profitability while safeguarding your funds.
If you still wish to experience parlay betting, we suggest avoiding parlays with more than three legs. If you have confidence in several events, consider placing separate bets. For example, if you are confident in events A, B, and C, you can divide your capital into three equal portions and place one bet on AB, one on BC, and one on CA. This approach helps reduce your betting risk.
Risk-Free Betting Strategy
If you're looking for a 100% guaranteed profit without the risk, you can employ a risk-free sports betting strategy. However, despite its name, betting platforms often classify this approach as a speculative play. If detected, it can lead to the confiscation of all funds and permanent account suspension.
Hedging Arbitrage Bets on the Same Platform:
The concept of hedging bets involves placing a second bet on a different outcome after the initial bet, covering all possible results. This creates a situation where you can secure a profit exceeding the initial investment, regardless of the final outcome. In NBA playoffs, hedging bets on the champion is a common strategy. However, understanding the key factors for success in this strategy is crucial before implementation. Let's use the 2023 NBA playoffs as an example to explain how hedging bets work.
The core of hedging bets lies in placing bets on different outcomes to ensure a certain profit, regardless of the initial bet's outcome. In 2023, the Miami Heat performed exceptionally well in the playoffs, unexpectedly defeating several opponents and ultimately reaching the finals. This team, led by Jimmy Butler, was not initially favored at the beginning of the season, but their playoff performance gradually attracted attention.
Although the Heat's early-season performance was subpar, their performance in the playoffs, especially by players like Jimmy Butler, made them strong contenders for the championship. For instance, at the start of the playoffs, bookmakers like Pinnacle might have offered initial odds of 15.0 for the Heat to win the championship. In this scenario, if you bet $10 on the Heat to win at the initial odds of 15.0, and they eventually become champions, you would receive a $150 payout. As the Heat continued to advance and eventually faced another strong team, such as the Denver Nuggets, in the finals, the odds for the Nuggets to win might be 1.75. This creates an ideal situation for a guaranteed profit, regardless of the game's outcome.
To achieve a situation where profit is guaranteed regardless of the winner, you need to calculate the amount to bet on the opposing outcome. The method involves dividing the potential winnings from the original bet by the odds for the opposing outcome (i.e., $150/1.75 = $85.71, betting on the Nuggets to win). Here's how potential profits are calculated:
| Outcome | Total Bet Amount | Odds | Gross Win | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat Wins | $10+$85.71 =$95.71 | 15 | $10 x 15 = $150 | 54.29 |
| Nuggets Wins | $10+$85.71 =$95.71 | 1.75 | $85.71 x 1.75 = $149.99 | 54.28 |
If the Miami Heat wins: You receive a $150 prize, subtracting the $95.71 the total bet amount, resulting in a net profit of $54.29.
If the Denver Nuggets win: Your $85.71 bet at odds of 1.75 yields a profit of $149.99, subtracting the $95.71 the total bet amount, resulting in a net profit of $54.28.
Through this method, hedging bets can assist you in managing risk and securing profits in the face of uncertain game outcomes.
Cross-Platform Arbitrage Betting:
Cross-platform arbitrage strategy is the most common and straightforward 100% arbitrage method. This strategy takes advantage of differences in odds for the same event on different platforms. Through carefully calculated combinations of bets, the goal is to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the match.
For example, the odds offered by two betting platforms may vary due to the factors mentioned earlier. You can carefully observe the odds fluctuations on each platform and place bets on both sides. The table below illustrates a scenario where I can secure a profit without any loss. I only need to bet $100 on the Heat to win at bet365 and bet on the Lakers to win at Pinnacle. Regardless of which team wins, I can make a 100% profit.
If the Lakers win: $100 * 2.05 - $200 = $5 If the Heat win: $100 * 2.10 - $200 = $10
| Outcome | bet365 | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers win | 1.8 | 2.05 |
| Heat win | 2.1 | 1.9 |
However, it is not recommended to use this method, as once identified as an arbitrage account by the betting platforms, it may lead to permanent account suspension.
Early Sell-Out Arbitrage:
Buying low and selling high is a common gambling strategy that allows bettors to take advantage of fluctuating odds. The key to this strategy is that the odds offered by bookmakers are not solely based on the possible outcomes of a match but also consider the betting amounts on each side of the market.
Bookmakers continually attempt to balance their books based on the amounts and risks of bets. They adjust the odds accordingly; if one side receives more bets than the other (higher risk), they make the opposing odds more attractive to encourage more bets.
However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the side with changing odds is more likely to win; instead, it creates value for bettors. For example, the Los Angeles Lakers are one of the most popular teams in the NBA and attract a significant amount of bets based on their popularity. If the initial odds were 6.50 but later moved to 4.50, it's not because the Lakers are more likely to cover the spread but because the amount of bets increased.
According to this strategy, you should place a bet when the odds for the opposing team are 1.50. This provides greater value because the change in odds is based on the quantity of bets rather than the likelihood of covering the initial spread. Through this strategy, even if the majority supports one side, you might benefit from more favorable bets due to changes in the spread.
Common Arbitrage Betting Strategies
Big Data Value Betting:
When you are accustomed to online betting and wish to enhance your betting skills, you can try building your own predictive win rate model. In this process, you will use all available data to establish your own odds, as if you were a bookmaker.
The core idea of this method is to compare the odds you set with those provided by sports betting companies to determine if there is value. If your odds are higher than the bookmaker's odds, it indicates value; if lower, it usually means there is no value.
By converting the market's implied probability percentages, you can easily understand the market's perception of the event's chances of winning. For example, a 50/50 chance corresponds to an implied probability of 50%, with odds of 2.00.
Let's take an upcoming NBA game as an example. Suppose, through research, we derive the following implied probabilities for the win/lose market:
Team A to win = 45% = Odds 2.22 Opponent to win = 55% = Odds 1.82
Now, we need to compare these odds with those provided by our preferred bookmaker. If we believe the opponent's chance of winning is 55%, corresponding to odds of 1.82, but another bookmaker offers only a 45% probability odds of 2.20, it indicates that, according to our analysis, betting on the opponent is valuable.
Kelly Criterion Strategy Betting:
The Kelly Criterion is a method used to help sports bettors determine how much capital to wager in each bet. It combines an assessment of the likelihood of outcomes occurring with an evaluation of the risk in each bet. While calculations can be performed using online calculators, understanding the underlying mathematical principles is also crucial.
The formula for the Kelly Criterion is as follows: B = Decimal Odds P = Probability of winning Q = Probability of losing Formula: (BP - Q) / B
Let's illustrate how the Kelly Criterion works with the example of the Over/Under (O/U) total points in an upcoming NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets.
| Name | O/U Total Points | Opening Odds | Probability Analysis | Kelly Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | O 235.5 | 1.91 | 65% | 27% |
| Nuggets | U 235.5 | 1.91 | 35% | - |
Assuming the Over/Under (O/U) line for the total points in the game is set at 235.5 with odds of 1.91. However, our analysis suggests that the probability of the total points exceeding this line is 65% (i.e., P = 0.65), and correspondingly, the probability of not exceeding it is 35% (i.e., Q = 0.35). According to the Kelly Criterion, our calculation is as follows:
(1.91 * 0.65 - 0.35) / 1.91 = 0.27 or 27%This means that if our analysis is correct, the Kelly Criterion recommends placing 27% of the total capital of the total points exceeding 235.5. This is an extreme example, and in most cases, the recommended betting proportions would be more conservative. This tool helps us understand the disparity between our own assessments and the odds provided by the betting platform, as well as the perceived value derived from these odds.
Become an Expert on Teams/Leagues
A significant mistake often made by casual sports bettors has been spreading their bets across too many different sports events. They frequently involve themselves in sports they are not familiar with. For those less acquainted with online sports betting, it is recommended to start simple and focus on betting on teams or events you are familiar with. Having sufficient information to make informed decisions is key to achieving success.
Betting on a team you support has both advantages and disadvantages. If you can stay rational and eliminate personal biases when placing bets, betting on your supported team can be viable. However, it is crucial to be able to analyze objectively and choose the most likely outcome rather than the one you hope for. For instance, if you are a fan of the Boston Celtics, you likely have a deeper understanding of both the team and the NBA. You can start betting by focusing on Celtics' games and then gradually expand to events involving other NBA teams.
NBA Betting Strategies
In NBA sports betting, one of the most common strategies is to bet against the market sentiment. The popularity of each team can vary greatly, meaning odds often become irrational as people simply bet on their favorites. If you want to know how to bet on basketball games, the best advice is to track opening odds and observe how the odds change as the game approaches.
MLB Betting Strategies
In MLB (Major League Baseball) betting, you may want to focus on Over/Under bets, especially in games with larger score lines (such as +/- 7.5 runs). When a game has such a scoreline, it usually indicates an expected high-scoring game, which often favors the underdog teams to create upsets. Use our professional tips to bet effectively on MLB, check for odds differentials to see if they offer any value.
NHL Betting Strategies
NHL (National Hockey League) is the lowest-scoring sport among the "big four professional sports leagues," but it has its unique advantages. Similar to the NBA, a prime strategy is to bet against the majority, as most bets tend to support teams with a home advantage. As a result, underdog teams often have higher value, and evaluation should be done in both spread and money line bets for each game. This is how we recommend you bet on NHL games on ice hockey rinks in the United States and Canada.
Golf Betting Strategies
Betting on golf tournaments is best leveraged with early betting and cash-out features. The odds offered pre-match for golf events are often very high, allowing you to use the cash-out feature to lock in profits before the event concludes. For example, the odds for most popular players can start at least at 10.00 or higher at the beginning of a match. These odds can significantly decrease if the players have a good start. After a strong early performance, you have the opportunity to lock in profits through early cash-out without waiting for the entire event to finish. In major events like the Four Majors, unexpected champions often emerge. Few experts can accurately predict these players in golf betting recommendations, so another smart strategy is to consider the top 10 and top 20 finish markets. This not only increases the chances of hitting the bet but also provides the possibility to spread bet among different players, thereby reducing risk.
Soccer Betting Strategies
In soccer betting, the market often underestimates the odds of a draw. Unlike other sports such as NBA or MLB, drawn results are more common in soccer matches, but the odds often do not reflect this. If you want to bet on soccer matches, a good strategy is to closely monitor the draw odds, especially in games between evenly matched teams. In the long run, this strategy may yield unexpectedly high returns. Like other sports, tracking initial odds and observing how they change as the game approaches can help you identify irrational odds. Additionally, considering factors such as a team's recent performance, home and away advantages, and player injuries is crucial in making favorable betting decisions. For example, if a team that usually performs averagely has recently excelled, betting on a draw in their next game might be a worthwhile consideration. Meanwhile, for traditionally strong teams, the market tends to overvalue them, making bets on the opponent or a draw potentially more valuable. Through such strategies, you can gain a competitive edge in soccer betting.
Betting Prediction Application
Mysports.AI is a sports betting assistance tool that combines advanced artificial intelligence and big data analysis, providing sports betting enthusiasts with a unique and powerful way to enhance their betting success. Leveraging advanced AI deep learning technology and big data analysis, we not only calculate win rates but also offer over ten betting strategies based on rich data insights. Users can utilize these strategies, along with their own predictive models, to formulate more precise betting plans. Mysports.AI also provides opening and closing odds, along with historical data for all backtests, allowing bettors to make decisions based on facts rather than intuition. Additionally, the platform offers daily AI-recommended betting opportunities, further increasing the likelihood of success.
In today's world of sports betting, success relies not only on luck but more on the effective application of strategies and in-depth data analysis. Mysports.AI combines these two elements, providing users with a powerful tool to maximize winning opportunities and minimize potential losses. Through this approach, Mysports.AI users can engage in more rational and logical betting, reduce the risks associated with blindly betting, and achieve steady profits over the long term.
Use Mysports.AI to help you predict match outcomes.
