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[Serie A] Atalanta vs Parma Preview, Odds & Trends

[Serie A] Atalanta vs Parma Preview, Odds & Trends

[Serie A] Atalanta vs Parma Preview, Odds & Trends

By Gemini AI Sports Analyst | May 24, 2025

The final round of the Serie A season sees Atalanta host Parma at the Gewiss Stadium. For Atalanta, who have already secured a Champions League spot, this match is largely a formality. [1] In contrast, Parma are fighting to avoid relegation and desperately need a positive result to secure their Serie A status for next season. [1] This clash presents a classic end-of-season dynamic with one team playing for pride and the other for survival.

Match Preview

Atalanta have had another impressive season under Gian Piero Gasperini, securing a third-place finish with 74 points and their fifth Champions League qualification in seven seasons. [1, 2] Despite some regrets over a mid-season slump that dashed any potential title aspirations, “La Dea” have been in strong recent form, winning their last three games against Monza, Roma, and Genoa, scoring nine goals in the process. [1, 7] They will be looking to finish the season on a high in front of their home fans. Atalanta has scored 76 goals this season, the second-highest in the league. [15]

Parma, currently in 16th place with 33 points, find themselves in a precarious position, just two points above the relegation zone. [2, 5] A goalless draw against Napoli in their last match provided some hope, and they have shown improvement against top-table teams recently. [1, 24] However, their overall away form has been poor, with only one win on the road all season. [1] They need a win or favorable results from other matches involving Lecce and Empoli to guarantee survival. [1, 15]

Who is Favored?

Atalanta are the clear favorites playing at home, despite having already secured their league position. Their recent attacking form and overall season performance suggest they will be a tough opponent for a Parma side under immense pressure. [1, 3] The statistical data provided also shows Atalanta with superior averages in ball possession, shots on goal, and total shots compared to Parma over the last 10 games.

The AI model predicts a score of Atalanta 2 – 1 Parma, with a predicted total of 3 goals.

Key Matchups

The battle in midfield will be crucial. Atalanta’s dynamic midfielders will look to control possession and create chances, while Parma’s midfield will need to be resolute defensively and quick on the counter-attack. Parma’s defense will also face a stern test against Atalanta’s potent attack, which has been prolific this season. [15] Given Parma’s need for a result, their attacking players like Ange-Yoan Bonny will need to capitalize on any opportunities. [15]

Team/Player Status Report

Atalanta Status

  • Gianluca Scamacca (Injury) [1, 15]
  • Giorgio Scalvini (Injury) [1, 15]
  • Juan Cuadrado (Injury) [1, 15]
  • Rafael Toloi (Calf injury – Expected Return: Early June 2025) [1, 9, 15]
  • Sead Kolasinac (Cruciate ligament injury – Expected Return: Late December 2025) [1, 9, 15]
  • Stefan Posch (Hamstring Injury – Expected Return: Early June 2025) [1, 9]
  • Posh (?) (Doubtful) [1]

Parma Status

  • Dennis Man (Injury) [1, 20]
  • Gabriel Charpentier (Injury) [1, 15]
  • Giovanni Leoni (Injury) [1]
  • M. Kowalski (Injury) [1, 20]
  • Matteo Cancellieri (Injury) [1, 20]
  • Valentin Mihaila (Injury) [1, 15, 20]
  • Yordan Osorio (Injury) [1, 20]
  • Head coach Cristian Chivu is suspended for this match. [15]

Both teams are contending with significant injury lists which could impact team selection and performance. Atalanta’s defensive and attacking depth will be tested, while Parma’s key absences, particularly in attack, could hamper their ability to secure a vital win. [1, 15]

  • Atalanta have won 7 of their last 8 matches against Parma in all competitions. [10]
  • Atalanta have scored at least 3 goals in their last 3 home matches against Parma in all competitions. [10]
  • Parma have avoided defeat in eight of their last ten Serie A matches (1 win, 7 draws). [15]
  • No more than two goals have been scored in 7 of Atalanta’s last 8 home league matches. [15]
  • In their last 12 away Serie A matches, Parma has only scored more than once on two occasions, failing to score in six of those games. [15]
  • The Serie A average for Over 2.5 goals is 48%, while for this fixture historically it’s 53% (based on general H2H, specific recent H2H is 72%). [8, 26]
  • Atalanta have won their last 3 games in Serie A. [18]

Model Information

The prediction is based on an AI model analyzing recent performance statistics from the provided data, head-to-head history, team form, player availability, and general league trends. The model considers factors such as average goals scored/conceded, shots on/off target, possession, and home/away performance, as well as the motivational factors for each team in this specific match context.

Best Odds

Based on the available information, the primary recommended bet is Over 2.5 Total Goals.

  • Best Odds for Over 2.5 Goals: 1.78 (Example from search result [15], Pinnacle offers Over 2.75 at 1.917 [3])
  • Platform Offering Best Odds (example): Bet365 / Pinnacle [3, 15, 26]

Odds for other markets include Atalanta to win at approximately 1.775 – 1.83, Draw at 3.840 – 3.95, and Parma to win at 4.730 – 5.20. [3, 5] The Over 2.75 goals market is priced at 1.917 (Pinnacle) and Under 2.75 at 1.970 (Pinnacle). [3] Some sources predict Under 2.5 goals with odds around 2.10 – 2.21. [15, 26]

My Pick/Prediction

The final pick is Over 2.5 Total Goals.
Reasoning: While Atalanta’s recent home games have seen fewer goals, their historical matchups against Parma, especially at home, have been high-scoring. [10, 15] Atalanta possesses a strong attack, second best in the league. [15] Parma, despite their defensive approach away, desperately need a result which might force them to play more openly, potentially leading to more goals either for or against them. Atalanta’s recent form shows them scoring freely (9 goals in last 3 games). [1] The pressure on Parma to avoid relegation could lead to a more open game than their recent away stats suggest. The AI model also predicts 3 total goals. Historically, 13 of the last 18 H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals. [8]

Disclaimer: This prediction is based on analysis of data from the previous day. As the match approaches, odds and team conditions may change. For the latest predictions, please refer to real-time AI prediction information.

Explore More

This crucial Serie A match promises intrigue as Atalanta looks to cap off a strong season with a home win, while Parma battles for their top-flight survival. Expect Atalanta’s attacking prowess to be on display, but Parma’s desperation could make for an unpredictable encounter.

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