When an NBA Player Listed “Questionable” Plays, Does He Play Fewer Minutes?
For key players listed Questionable 2 hours before tip-off who ended up playing, we compared that game’s minutes and points with the same player’s games when he was not on the injury report.
- Result status
- Preliminary results
- Last updated
- Start date
- Duration
- Day 4 of 1
- Research team
- Mysports.AI Research Team
- Plan registered
Minutes for NBA Players Listed Questionable: Key Findings
1,394 games and 316 players in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular seasons (1.76 minutes, range 1.41–2.12). Listed players who played averaged 27.6 minutes, versus about 29.4 in the same players’ games off the report.
- 0.73 fewer points (range 0.27–1.19). No difference could be seen in points per 36 minutes or plus-minus: we can’t see worse per-minute play, but can’t say it is the same either, nor how much of the points drop comes from fewer minutes.
- Share playing under half their usual minutes: 3.2% when listed, 2.0% off the report. Mostly a small trim, not a quick exit.
- Across 14 alternative calculations (excluding overtime, using status 6 or 1 hour before tip-off, comparing only with earlier games or same-team games, each season separately, and more), the drop stays between 1.5 and 2.0 minutes.
- Exploratory (not tested, not conclusions yet): stars about 2.2 fewer minutes, non-stars about 1.1; players who missed their team’s previous game about 2.5, those who played it about 0.9; players listed Probable who played also about 1.1 fewer.
How to use this yourself
Open the NBA’s official injury report page (official.nba.com) and click the latest report of the day (a PDF). Times on the report are US Eastern. Open source ↗
Find the game (Matchup column) and the player (Player Name column), then look at the “Current Status” column: Questionable means he may or may not play; Probable means likely to play.
Start with R7: a key player still Questionable 2 hours before tip-off plays a bit more than half the time (about 56%).
If he plays (or the last report changes him to Available), estimate his minutes about 1.8 below his usual (last 10-game average): if he usually plays 30, think about 28; expect points slightly under 1 below usual. Don’t treat him as a half-game player—playing under half his usual minutes happened only about 3% of the time.
You can see his minutes over the last 10 games in the game log on his NBA.com player page.
These are averages for key players (20+ minutes over their last 10 games) in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular seasons and guarantee nothing for any single game; the reason for fewer minutes (injury, coach’s limit, lopsided game) cannot be separated. Stars and players who missed the previous game dropping more are exploratory, not yet established. No difference was seen in points per 36 minutes, so this page has no per-minute discount to apply. This is not a betting signal.
In plain words
Why study this?
A player listed “Questionable” may play less even when he plays. Knowing by how much helps you avoid treating him as fully healthy when reading forecasts or estimating minutes.
What do we want to know?
R7 found that a bit more than half of players listed Questionable (may or may not play) on the NBA’s official injury report end up playing. But do they play fewer minutes or score less when they do?
How do we study it?
We looked at players averaging 20+ minutes over their last 10 games in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular seasons. For the 1,394 games (316 players) where a player was listed Questionable 2 hours before tip-off and then played, we computed “this game’s minutes minus his average over the previous 10 games” and compared it with the same difference in his 20,830 games that season when he was not on the report. The plan and the analysis code were timestamped before we looked at any results.
What have we found?
When listed and playing, players averaged 1.76 fewer minutes than in their own games off the report (range 1.41–2.12), about 6% of their usual minutes, and scored 0.73 fewer points. No difference could be seen in points per 36 minutes or plus-minus. Across 14 alternative calculations, the drop stayed between 1.5 and 2.0 minutes.
How does this help with predictions?
Even when a key player listed “Questionable” plays, don’t assume business as usual: on average he plays almost 2 minutes less and scores under 1 point less. When estimating his minutes, start from R7’s playing rate (about 56%); if he plays, adjust his minutes down slightly. The gap is small—no need to treat him as a half-game player.
What can’t we say yet?
This is a retrospective study, not a blind test. We compared only players who ended up playing, who usually have milder problems; whether the drop comes from the injury, a coach’s minutes limit or a lopsided game cannot be separated. The comparison games also include games after the listing, when a player may not be fully recovered. We will recalculate for 2026-27 with the same rules.
Terms used on this page
- Injury report
- The NBA’s official list saying whether each player can play in a game: Out, Doubtful, Questionable, Probable or Available.
- Key player
- A player averaging 20+ minutes over his last 10 games played for his team that season; a star averages 28+.
- His games off the report
- Games in the same season where the player was not on any pre-game injury report. We use them for comparison, computing the same “minutes minus previous 10-game average”.
- Range
- A 95% interval from resampling whole players 4,000 times. We only say there is a difference when the range does not include 0.
Detailed results
Fewer minutes when listed and playing, versus own games off the report
Key players, 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular seasons. The first row is the pre-registered main result; the others are exploratory groups (not tested). Numbers are fewer minutes.
The main result’s range is 1.41–2.12 minutes. Exploratory groups are smaller and many, so treat them as reference only. This is research, not betting advice.
HypothesesFor deeper reading
- H1Minutes differ → supported: on average 1.76 fewer minutes (range 1.41–2.12); 14 alternative calculations all give 1.55–1.98 minutesSupported in this sample
- S1Points differ → supported: on average 0.73 fewer points (range 0.27–1.19)Supported in this sample
- S2Plus-minus differs → no difference can be seen (-0.31, range -1.07 to +0.41). This does not mean it is the sameInsufficient evidence
- S3Points per 36 minutes differ → no difference can be seen (+0.21, range -0.29 to +0.74). This does not mean per-minute output is the sameInsufficient evidence
Questionable Players’ Minutes: Research Methods
Research questions
- When a key player listed Questionable plays, how many fewer minutes does he play than in his own games off the report?
- What about points, plus-minus and points per 36 minutes?
- Is it different for stars, players who missed the previous game, or the second night of a back-to-back? (exploratory, not tested)
Method summary
- There is one main result: how much lower “this game’s minutes minus the previous 10-game average” is in listed-and-played games than in the same player’s games off the report that season. Each listed game counts once.
- “Listed” = the latest report 2 hours before tip-off says Questionable and has for at least 15 minutes (as in R7). “Played” = at least 1 minute in the official stats. A player needs at least 5 games off the report in that season to be compared.
- The first version of the data gate did not pass: to guard against report names not matching players, it dropped whole team-games with such names, keeping only 74.9%. After checking the unmatched names (mostly players out for the whole season), we only dropped cases whose surname matched a player who actually played for that team, keeping 98.3%. No minutes or points were looked at during this revision.
Data and limitations
Data we use (all public and free)
- NBA official injury report PDFs (2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons; this page shows only aggregated numbers)
- NBA.com player game-by-game stats (minutes, points, plus-minus; this page shows only aggregated numbers)
Limitations
- Retrospective, not blind: who was listed and who played in these seasons was already published in R7.
- Only players who ended up playing; they usually have milder problems, so this does not prove the injury caused the drop.
- The reason for fewer minutes (injury, coach’s limit, lopsided game, fouls) cannot be separated; minutes are rounded to whole numbers.
- Comparison games include games after the listing, when a player may not be fully recovered; using only earlier games, the estimate is 1.98 fewer minutes.
- “Off the report” is judged from our parsed reports; a missing report file or an unmatched name could miss a few listings.
Latest progress
Latest：Main results are in: key players listed Questionable who played averaged 1.8 fewer minutes and 0.7 fewer points; the plan and analysis code were timestamped first, and results were reviewed by an AI code-review tool
Next step：After the 2026-27 regular season, recalculate with the same rules
Study timeline
- First version of the data gate did not pass; revised and passed after review, before any minutes or points were looked at
- Plan finalized and timestamped after one round of AI-tool code review; analysis code tested on synthetic data and timestamped before running
- Main results in; one round of AI-tool code review (main number unchanged; a few rounding and wording fixes)
- After the 2026-27 regular season (and not before R1’s forward cutoff: 1,000 items or February 15, 2027), recalculate with the same rulesIn progress
Update log
Version history
- v1.0-results
Main results: key players listed Questionable who played averaged 1.76 fewer minutes and 0.73 fewer points; no difference seen in points per 36 minutes or plus-minus
- v1.0
Plan finalized and timestamped (T0 = 2026-11-10 09:12 UTC); retrospective, not blind, with 2026-27 as a later re-check
Study record
c62d33d1edd512fd0ac74e260ddefa41a3f44c4d115809030427709f5f50028883fdcff675eeae8b493b45a4e42819dafca44a64049ecbd71fd69d330055303321e0a18ab355480151e5498257e512cf88b126331a810a69cbb48a82b1be2c56dd7684c8db0b5762095ad0422091f835fc43ff70c3e1ae165d61f3012c47a301This page is a research log for reference only and is not betting advice or a guarantee of profit.