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Mysports Research

The Mysports.ai team keeps researching sports to push our models and data further.

We study player news, odds and prediction platforms to learn which data help predict games. Here we publish each study’s findings, progress and limitations.

A basketball player with a wrapped knee sitting courtside, next to an injury record board
R1AnalyzingPlayer news

When News About a Key NBA Player Breaks, Do the Odds Move Right Away?

A study of sudden player-status news: when a key player is suddenly ruled out or cleared to play, how fast do the odds on the prediction platform Polymarket change?

Adding up all the news: after the NBA posts injury news, most of the odds change after the report happens in the first 15 minutes. About 40% of the whole change happens before the official report.

Limitation：This comes from adding up many news items, so not every item is the same. We only have one odds reading every 5 minutes. The tiny change after 15 minutes is no longer clear under a different data filter.

Where we are：Initial analysis done; one data-filtering error corrected

Next：Check again on new games from the 2026-27 season; we compare the answers in mid-February 2027

Start date Oct 20, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
NBA odds on the Taiwan Sports Lottery website: away and home columns
R2AnalyzingOdds comparison

Same Game: How Do Taiwan Sports Lottery Odds Compare with an International Bookmaker?

Odds decide how much you get back when you are right. We compare the odds Taiwan Sports Lottery and the large international bookmaker Pinnacle offer on the same outcome of the same game.

Using the same estimated win chances, for every NT$100 put in, Taiwan Sports Lottery is expected to return about NT$83 on average and the international bookmaker Pinnacle about NT$96 — a gap of about NT$13. The gap is even bigger on underdogs.

Limitation：An average worked out from estimated win chances — not real betting records, and not a fixed deduction; the data only covers Sept–Oct 2026.

Where we are：Initial analysis done; several calculations and explanations corrected

Next：Add new games every month; in February 2027, confirm whether the gap is still there

Start date Oct 20, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
A receipt, coins and a calculator under stadium lights, representing trading costs
R3AnalyzingTrading costs

Polymarket Raised Its Fees — How Much More Does a Trade Cost?

We compare the cost of trading the same games on Polymarket and Kalshi, and also check whether the gap between buy and sell prices, and how accurately the odds predict results, have changed.

After the fee change, the cost of trading on Polymarket went up, mostly because of the fee itself. The gap between buy and sell prices did not visibly widen, and there is not yet enough evidence to say whether the odds became better or worse at predicting results.

Where we are：Initial analysis done; the start time of the fee change and the calculation method corrected after an external code review

Next：Write up the results and confirm data licensing, then publish

Start date Oct 20, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
An ice hockey goalie standing in front of the net
R4AnalyzingPlayer news

After an NHL Starting Goalie Is Confirmed, How Long Until the Odds Move?

A study of “goalie confirmations”: after reporters confirm who will start in goal tonight, do the odds on Polymarket change, and how long does the change last? (The first stop of our starting-lineup research.)

After a goalie is confirmed, the odds keep changing a little, but only by a very small amount; we can’t yet say how long it takes for the odds to fully reflect the news.

Limitation：We only have one odds reading every 5 minutes; the changes are very small, and we did not calculate trading costs this time, so we can’t tell whether it is profitable; the “how long” estimate is not very precise.

Where we are：Initial analysis done; data filtering method corrected

Next：Check again on new games from the 2026-27 season; we compare the answers in mid-February 2027

Start date Oct 20, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
A phone showing a list of game predictions next to a clock, illustrating the tracking of public prediction records
R5Pre-registeredPublic picks

After a Public Pick Is Posted, Do the Odds Move Its Way?

After free NBA picks from PTT, Yuncai Xiaowei (a Taiwanese tipster) and Predictem are posted, does the backed team become more favored on Polymarket before tip-off? Pick data are collected by betlead.win.

Where we are：Redesigned around public picks with posting times; plan finalized and timestamped; 2025-26 season analysis in progress

Next：Finish the 2025-26 analysis and external code review; re-test on the 2026-27 season with the same method (decision on 2027/2/15)

Start date Oct 20, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
Illustration of a starting formation on a soccer field, with one position marked with a question mark
R6AnalyzingPlayer news

When Soccer Lineups Come Out, Do the Odds Move Right Away?

A study of “full starting lineup announcements”: about 1 hour before kick-off, both teams name their 11 starters. How do the odds on Polymarket change after that, and for how long? (The second stop of our starting-lineup research.)

Yes, and fast: 15 minutes after a Premier League lineup is announced, the odds have made about 60% of their move. The size is small, though—about 0.40 percentage point in implied win chance in the 30 minutes around the announcement. Whether odds move before the announcement, or keep drifting after it, is not yet clear.

Limitation：Only the Premier League has a fixed announcement time, and we use that rule time rather than measuring each match; moves are small, and fees and spreads were not computed, so profitability is unknown.

Where we are：Main results are in and corrected after external code review; all four data checkpoints passed

Next：Publish after confirming data licensing; re-check on new 2026-27 matches

Start date Oct 21, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
A basketball player having their ankle checked by a trainer courtside, waiting to find out if they can play
R7AnalyzingPlayer news

When an NBA Player Is Listed “Questionable,” Do They End Up Playing?

We count what share of players listed as “Questionable” actually end up playing. Whether the market gets this uncertainty right is the question for the next step.

About 56% of key players listed as questionable two hours before tip-off ended up playing; 47% of those first listed less than 12 hours out played, versus 60% of those listed earlier. The status did not predict how the odds moved before tip-off.

Limitation：The official injury report only goes down to rough categories like “Questionable,” and Polymarket only has odds on “will the team win,” so this version does not judge how well the market guesses a player’s chance of playing.

Where we are：Main results are in; report wording corrected after external code review

Next：Publish after confirming data licensing; check again on the new 2026-27 season using rules that are already locked

Start date Oct 21, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study
A basketball, a glowing computing device and a court analysis panel, illustrating AI analyzing games
R8Collecting dataAI predictions

Do Teams Favored by AI Become More Favored Before Tip-Off?

Three AI models forecast win chances before games; we check whether they anticipated pre-game odds moves and compare their accuracy. Part 1 uses the new NBA season; Part 2 looks back at 2026 MLB forecasts already locked before games on aisportsinfo.com.

Where we are：Part 1 (NBA) is collecting daily; Part 2 (2026 MLB look-back) plan finalized and timestamped

Next：Run Part 2 analysis by 2026/11/30; analyze Part 1 after the regular season ends in April 2027

Start date Oct 21, 2026Last updated Oct 21, 2026
Read the full study

How research helps our models

01

Find signals models miss

The timing of injury news, lineups and odds moves may hold information our models are not using yet.

02

Understand how odds and prices are set

Knowing where bookmaker odds and prediction-platform prices are accurate — and where they are off — tells a model what to rely on and what to avoid.

03

Checked before it goes into a model

Every finding is checked again on upcoming games and only used in a model if it still holds.

04

Track and refine

Markets keep changing, so studies are tracked over time and refined as new data arrives.

How a study makes it into our models

  1. 1Find a question worth studying in games and markets
  2. 2Collect data and write the study plan
  3. 3Analyze the data to find patterns
  4. 4Check again on upcoming games that the finding still holds
  5. 5Use validated findings to improve models and data, and keep tracking

FAQ

How does this research relate to Mysports.ai models?

Research is where model improvements come from. Validated findings improve the data our models use, bring estimated probabilities closer to real outcomes, and help control risk; dead ends save us from wasted effort. See AI Model Performance →

Is this betting advice?

No. The research is about understanding games and markets better and is not betting advice.

Why run so many studies at once?

Studies share data and tools — data cleaned for one can be reused by others — so everything moves faster and findings can be cross-checked from different angles.

How often is this updated?

Each card is updated as its study progresses; the latest progress and results appear directly on the card.

This page is a research log for reference only and is not betting advice or a guarantee of profit.