When International Odds Move, How Long Until Taiwan Sports Lottery Follows?
Using only odds snapshots (no betting slips), we measure how long Taiwan Sports Lottery takes to move its odds the same way after Pinnacle’s odds change noticeably.
- Result status
- Results withheld (data-source permission being confirmed)
- Last updated
- Start date
- Duration
- Day 2 of 7
- Research team
- Mysports.AI Research Team
- Plan registered
In plain words
Why study this?
Injuries, lineups and weather move odds before games. Knowing how far Taiwan Sports Lottery lags the international market helps a model tell when its odds have not yet reflected the latest news, and helps readers understand why the two differ.
What do we want to know?
Before games, injuries, lineups, weather and big bets move the odds. We ask: after the international estimate moves noticeably, how long does Taiwan Sports Lottery take to first change its odds the same way, and does its next change usually match the direction?
How do we study it?
Example: at 8:00 p.m. the international market gives the Yankees 55%; at 8:15 it is 58%. Taiwan offers the Yankees 1.65 and only lowers it to 1.60 at 9:25—about 70 minutes later. A noticeable move means at least 2 percentage points within 15 minutes. Data: MLB and eight soccer leagues, Sept 9 to Oct 20, 2026, moneyline only, about 435 games. Taiwan odds are recorded roughly every 10 minutes, so we can tell tens of minutes from hours, but not differences under 30 minutes.
Where are we now?
The analysis has been completed under the pre-registered plan (both the plan and the analysis code were timestamped first), but permission to use the Taiwan Sports Lottery odds source (Playsport pages) is still being confirmed, so the results are withheld until then.
What can’t we say yet?
Moving the same way does not mean Taiwan Sports Lottery is watching the overseas market; both may react to the same news, and in 20% of cases Taiwan Sports Lottery moved at the same time or earlier. Taiwan odds come from a public site about every 10 minutes, and the collector was down about a quarter of the time; the overseas record updates about every 15 minutes, so differences under 30 minutes cannot be resolved. Only MLB and eight soccer leagues, moneyline, Sep–Oct 2026.
Terms used on this page
- Odds
- How much each 1 returns on a win, stake included. Odds of 1.80 means 100 returns 180.
- Pinnacle (international bookmaker)
- A large international bookmaker with low margins that takes big bets; its odds are widely used as the international reference.
- Estimated win chance
- Odds converted to a probability with the bookmaker’s margin removed. It is an estimate, not necessarily the true chance.
- Percentage point
- The difference between two probabilities. For example, 50% to 51% is an increase of 1 percentage point.
Taiwan Sports Lottery Line Speed: Research Questions
No results yet — here are the research questions and current progress.
Taiwan Sports Lottery Line Moves: Research Methods
Hypotheses
- H1After a noticeable move abroad, Taiwan Sports Lottery’s next change goes the same way more than half the timeNot published yet
- H2The more the international odds have moved since Taiwan’s last change, the more likely Taiwan changesNot published yet
- H3Closer to the start, Taiwan follows fasterNot published yet
Method summary
- Only odds snapshots; no betting slips.
- A noticeable move is at least 2 percentage points within 15 minutes; once per game per hour; we wait until the start or 12 hours at most.
- Controls: time until Taiwan moves the opposite way, and placebo moves shifted 3 hours earlier.
- Observation ends whenever the collector was down; no guessing.
Data and limitations
Data we use (all public and free)
- Taiwan Sports Lottery odds (recorded about every 10 minutes by Mysports.AI from Playsport game pages; no betting slips used)
- Pinnacle odds records (Mysports.AI odds system; logged every minute, but the odds actually update about every 15 minutes)
- Game matching: Mysports.AI odds-system IDs and closing odds
Limitations
- Resolution is about 30 minutes; differences of a few minutes cannot be seen.
- Taiwan odds come via Playsport pages, not official minute-by-minute records; about a quarter of the time Taiwan odds were not observed.
- Only MLB and eight soccer leagues, Sept–Oct 2026, moneyline only; results do not extend to other sports, markets or periods.
- The international estimate is not the true chance and is less informative long before the start.
Latest progress
Latest：Analysis completed; results withheld while permission to use the Taiwan Sports Lottery odds source is confirmed
Next step：Publish after the data-source permission is confirmed or an allowed Taiwan Sports Lottery odds source is used; a new-season re-test plan is already timestamped
Study timeline
- Novelty and data checked; plan finalized and timestamped after two external code reviews
- Analysis code timestamped before running; corrected after two external code reviews
- New-season re-test plan (adding the NBA) timestamped
- Confirm permission for the Taiwan Sports Lottery odds sourceIn progress
Update log
Version history
- v1.2-fix
The data source’s (Playsport pages) terms restrict scraping, so the results were taken off the page until permission is confirmed
- v1.1-forward
New-season re-test plan timestamped (2026-10-22 07:44 UTC); sample is games played afterwards, adding the NBA
- v1.1-fix
Five fixes after external code review (after results), logged in the deviation record
- v1.0-results
Analysis completed under the plan (results withheld)
- v1.0
Plan finalized and timestamped (T0 = 2026-10-21 11:23 UTC); odds snapshots only, no betting slips
Study record
adeb4ddb061cd92b1daa7fafa1536051e574d6aa7b54c830128ae37445a873820057c52426ff3a7d089758df0ed6e16f1bbdc3f3cf44a323c868b0e44773e50847f9481feb697e7192221a1e5e9cc052fa5920a2f49fc9c0616041a8664c2af9This page is a research log for reference only and is not betting advice or a guarantee of profit.