Same Game: How Do Taiwan Sports Lottery Odds Compare with an International Bookmaker?
Odds decide how much you get back when you are right. We compare the odds Taiwan Sports Lottery and the large international bookmaker Pinnacle offer on the same outcome of the same game.
- Result status
- Preliminary results
- Last updated
- Start date
- Duration
- Day 3 of 30
- Research team
- Mysports.AI Research Team
- Plan registered
Taiwan Sports Lottery vs Pinnacle: Key Findings
An average estimate based on 2,565 games in Sept–Oct 2026; the side-by-side comparison was added after the planned analysis. These are not real betting records, and you don’t get exactly this much less every time.
- For a NT$100 bet, averaged by estimated win chance, Taiwan Sports Lottery returns about NT$83 and the international bookmaker Pinnacle about NT$96.
- The less likely the pick, the bigger the gap: about NT$8 on the favorite, about NT$15 on the underdog.
- Soccer’s “home win, draw or away win” bet has the biggest gap, about NT$15; baseball and basketball are about NT$10–13.
- Options where Taiwan Sports Lottery’s odds are higher than the international bookmaker’s are rare (about 1.4%). Options where, by estimated win chance, you’d expect to get back more than you put in (over NT$100) are even rarer — under 1% — and that does not guarantee real bets would make money.
Same selection: what odds does each side offer?
When Taiwan Sports Lottery offers the odds on the left, the median odds (rounded to two decimals) Pinnacle offers on the same selection in the same game. A winning NT$100 bet returns odds × 100.
| Taiwan Sports Lottery | Pinnacle | Less on a winning NT$100 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | 1.43 | NT$13 |
| 1.40 | 1.54 | NT$14 |
| 1.50 | 1.66 | NT$16 |
| 1.60 | 1.78 | NT$18 |
| 1.70 | 1.90 | NT$20 |
| 1.80 | 2.03 | NT$23 |
| 1.90 | 2.18 | NT$28 |
| 2.00 | 2.32 | NT$32 |
| 2.20 | 2.57 | NT$37 |
| 2.50 | 2.98 | NT$48 |
| 3.00 | 3.65 | NT$65 |
| 3.50 | 4.35 | NT$85 |
| 4.00 | 5.09 | NT$109 |
Presentation added after the planned analysis; no new tests｜Closing odds for the same set of games, Sept–Oct 2026｜Only odds that Taiwan Sports Lottery offered exactly, with at least 30 cases｜The international bookmaker’s odds are the raw numbers, with its margin not removed｜After removing 40 sets of possibly mismatched data, the results are almost the same.
Expected return on the same NT$100 stake
Taken from this page’s main analysis: 2026/9/9–10/19, 2,565 games and 13,319 options, with the same estimated win chances used for both sides. These are average expected returns that include the money put in — not real betting results, and not fixed deductions. Both bars use NT$100 as the common baseline.
In plain words
Why study this?
Taiwan Sports Lottery is what players in Taiwan use most, yet there is very little public research on how far its odds are from international ones, or on which kinds of bets. The results show players in Taiwan which bets put them at a bigger disadvantage. They also help the model (a computer program that estimates game results from data) know how to convert between different bookmakers’ odds when comparing them.
What do we want to know?
Different bookmakers can offer different odds on the same result of the same game. The higher the odds, the more money you get back when you are right. We want to know: how much lower are Taiwan Sports Lottery’s odds than an international bookmaker’s, usually? And is the gap bigger for the side seen as less likely to win (the underdog)?
How do we study it?
We compared 2,565 games and 13,319 betting options from 2026/9/9 to 10/19, always using the last odds recorded before the game started. To be fair, both sides use the same estimated win chances: we take Pinnacle’s odds, remove the bookmaker’s cut (the margin, or “vig”), and convert them into probabilities. Then we work out how much Taiwan Sports Lottery and Pinnacle each return on average for every NT$100 put in.
What have we found?
With this data and this way of estimating, for every NT$100 put in, Taiwan Sports Lottery is expected to return about NT$83 on average, and Pinnacle about NT$96 — a gap of about NT$13. The gap is usually bigger for the side seen as less likely to win (about NT$15, versus about NT$8 for favorites).
What do these amounts mean?
“Expected return” is an average worked out from estimated win chances, and it includes the original NT$100 you put in. It is not a record of real bets. It does not mean every NT$100 bet brings back NT$83, or that Taiwan Sports Lottery always takes NT$17. A single bet might return NT$0, or several hundred NT dollars.
What can’t we say yet?
The estimated win chance is not necessarily the true win chance. The data is from Sept–Oct 2026 and is mostly soccer and baseball, so it can’t directly stand for every season and every game.
Terms used on this page
- Odds
- How much you get back for each NT$1 if you guess right (including the money you put in). For example, at odds of 1.90, a correct NT$100 bet brings back NT$190.
- Bookmaker’s margin (vig)
- Bookmakers set odds a little lower than fair odds, and the difference is their income. For example, a coin flip lands heads or tails with equal chances, so the fair odds are 2.00. If a bookmaker only offers 1.90, a correct NT$100 bet gets NT$10 less than at fair odds. That doesn’t mean NT$10 is taken every time: a wrong guess returns NT$0 anyway. The margin is a cost that shows up as a long-run average.
- Estimated win chance
- The probability worked out from Pinnacle’s odds after removing the margin. It stands for the rough chance of each result — it is not the true win chance.
- Expected return
- The average amount you get back (including the money you put in), worked out from estimated win chances — not what you actually get back each time.
- Pinnacle
- A large international bookmaker with a low margin and fast-changing odds. The industry often uses its odds as a reference for the international market.
- Underdog / favorite
- The underdog is the option seen as less likely to win; the favorite is the one seen as more likely. Soccer’s “win, draw or lose” bet has three options, and the least likely one is sometimes the draw.
- Closing odds
- The last odds recorded before the game starts; the industry also calls this the “closing line.” They usually already reflect the most news.
Detailed results
Taiwan Sports Lottery’s expected return per NT$100, by estimated win chance
Taiwan Sports Lottery only. Options are split into five groups by estimated win chance — a different split from “betting on the more or less likely side of the same game” above. Both splits show that the bigger the underdog, the less comes back.
Calculated following the plan written in advance (mismatched games not removed)｜Games played 2026/9/9–10/19, 13,319 betting options｜Amount back per NT$100 = 100 × Taiwan Sports Lottery odds × estimated win chance.
HypothesesFor deeper reading
- H1Favorites and underdogs lose different amounts to the margin → holds: within the same bet type, betting on the least favored option returns about NT$8 less per NT$100 on average than betting on the most favored one; about NT$7 after removing games with mismatched data; the result is the same with other calculation methods and for each sportSupported in this sample
- H2The win chances converted from Taiwan Sports Lottery odds are less accurate than the international bookmaker’s → the gap is very small; not enough evidence to tell (only 686 games have results so far)Insufficient evidence
- H3Using win chances worked out from the international bookmaker, options where you’d expect to get back more than you put in (over NT$100) on average exist but are rare → under 1% (about 0.5% after removing mismatched data); this does not guarantee that real bets would make moneySupported in this sample
- H4(Exploratory) Differences by sport and bet type → soccer’s “home win, draw or away win” bet costs players the most (returns about NT$80), while baseball and basketball spreads and totals return about NT$85–86Exploratory
Further analysis
Further analysis done after the main results. Items marked “post-hoc” were added after seeing the data and are for reference only; items marked “pre-registered” or “Extension 1” had their rules written and timestamped before anything was calculated.
- (Post-hoc exploration) The higher the odds Taiwan Sports Lottery offers, the less you can expect back on average (estimated expected return per NT$100, using win chances implied by Pinnacle, an international bookmaker; not actual payouts): options priced below 1.30 return an estimated NT$88; 1.30–1.90 about 86–87; 3.00–4.50 about 77–78; 4.50 and above only about 66–69 (depending on whether mismatched-data matches are excluded).
- (Post-hoc exploration) Bet types differ a lot (again, estimated expected returns): soccer win/draw/win about 80 on average, soccer over/under about 85, baseball markets about 85–86. Long shots fare worst: the least favoured side of a soccer match about 75, and the draw about 78.
- (Post-hoc exploration) Big leagues get no better prices: in top soccer competitions (Premier League, La Liga, Champions League, etc.) Taiwan Sports Lottery’s estimated expected return is about 82 per 100, the same as other soccer, while foreign bookmakers (benchmarked by Pinnacle) pay out even more on those matches, so the gap is larger there (about 14.7 vs 13.3).
- (Official figures) By law Taiwan Sports Lottery may in principle pay out at most 78% of sales (exceptions need regulator approval). Official sales and sports-fund figures imply roughly 78 per 100 overall — a lower bound that assumes selling costs at their legal cap and covers all bet types and parlays. It is measured differently from our single-bet expected return of about 83, so the actual difference cannot be pinned down. Parlays multiply the bookmaker’s cut: about 69 for a 2-leg and 58 for a 3-leg parlay. The Hong Kong Jockey Club’s annual report implies about 87 for its football betting overall.
Limits of this analysis
- The first three points are post-hoc breakdowns made after seeing the results; a confirmatory plan will test them on matches starting from 23 Oct 2026, after the v1.1 forward check is judged in February 2027.
- We have no betting-volume data, so 'popular' is proxied by a fixed league list and by how small a cut foreign bookmakers take on the match.
- The ~78 figure is a lower bound estimated from official sales and fund contributions, assuming selling costs at their legal cap (not an officially published payout). It covers all bet types, parlays and actual results, so it cannot simply be subtracted from the single-bet 83. Parlay figures assume independent legs.
Taiwan Sports Lottery Odds Comparison: Methods
Research questions
- Where does Taiwan Sports Lottery’s margin fall more heavily? Do favorites lose out more, or underdogs?
- Converted to probabilities, are Taiwan Sports Lottery’s odds or Pinnacle’s closer to real results?
- Are there any Taiwan Sports Lottery options where, by estimated win chance, you’d expect to get back more than you put in (over NT$100) on average (a positive expected value)?
Method summary
- Where the estimated win chance comes from: we take the closing odds of the international bookmaker Pinnacle, remove the bookmaker’s margin, and convert them into probabilities (we also redo it with a second way of removing the margin, and the results agree).
- Expected amount back per NT$100 = 100 × Taiwan Sports Lottery odds × estimated win chance. Using estimated win chances is much more stable than just counting wins and losses.
- Spreads and totals are only compared when both bookmakers use the same line (for example, both give 1.5 points).
- A check added after seeing the results: for 40 games, the two bookmakers’ data were mismatched (home and away swapped, or matched to the wrong game). Removing them does not change the conclusions.
- A presentation added after seeing the results: to answer “how big is the gap” directly, we also worked out how much the international bookmaker returns using the same estimated win chances, and show it side by side with Taiwan Sports Lottery.
- The main number averages every betting option as if NT$100 were bet on each, not by real betting amounts. Counting each game once instead, or calculating by sport, gives the same conclusion.
- Added on 2026/10/20 after another AI tool checked the code: a test we had missed, separate results for draws (betting on a draw returns about NT$78 per NT$100 on average), and the code that produces the NT$12.6 figure.
Data and limitations
Data we use
- Closing odds from each bookmaker (Taiwan Sports Lottery, Pinnacle), collected every round by the Mysports.AI odds system
- Game results (used only for the accuracy comparison)
Limitations
- Both bookmakers’ last odds were captured in the same round, but not necessarily in the same second.
- The sample covers Sept–Oct 2026, mostly soccer and baseball; there are only 110 basketball games.
- Using the international bookmaker’s probabilities, with its margin removed, as the estimated win chance is common practice in the industry, but it is not necessarily the true win chance.
Latest progress
Latest：Extended analysis (post-hoc): the higher the odds Taiwan Sports Lottery offers, the less you can expect back on average, and popular leagues get no better deal; a confirmation on games from Oct 23 onward is pre-registered
Next step：Add new games every month; in February 2027, confirm whether the gap is still there
Study timeline
- Research direction set
- Part one plan finalized and timestamped
- Part one: comparing closing odds
- Forward tracking: new games from 10/20 added every month (verdict on 2027/2/1)In progress
Update log
Version history
- v1.1-forward
The plan to keep tracking by adding new games every month is finalized and timestamped, with the rules for judging the results written in advance
- v1.0-fix
Fixed after another AI tool checked the code: added a test we had missed and the results for draws; wrote “higher odds” and “expected to get back more than you put in (over NT$100) by estimated win chance” separately; corrected the number of games analyzed to 2,565
- v1.0
Plan finalized and timestamped; finished the analysis “comparing closing odds”
Study record
df93cb5c1b262842223c828590c9281f16ca12205c5d1e3b7f008dc4658ef6bb258c7eb9aae5eeb1ba91b7d98bf11702a5066ba96bf77ed9884b1cd4a00c7a6537babbd0cce9cdaea4e9741bfb85e13ef8c7571d08c88d33ddda3bd9935a704fb0b225e8969096780c440a9e016332491d857b4491232582dfc4bff27fa806a2This page is a research log for reference only and is not betting advice or a guarantee of profit.