2026 World Cup AI Predictions: Round of 16 Picks, Odds & Track Record

The 2026 World Cup AI predictions are being put to the test in real time — and so far the model is passing. Across the Round of 32, Mysports.AI called 14 of 16 ties correctly, an 87.5% hit rate, with both misses coming in penalty shootouts after 1–1 draws. With the Round of 16 now underway, this page tracks how every AI prediction has held up and what the model expects next.

The knockout picture is already dramatic. France, Morocco, Norway and England have booked quarterfinal places, setting up France vs Morocco and Norway vs England in the last eight. The biggest shock so far: Brazil, one of the pre-tournament favourites, were knocked out 2–1 by Norway in the Round of 16.

Below you will find the full Round of 32 results measured against the AI’s picks, live Round of 16 predictions with win probabilities, and how the quarterfinal bracket is taking shape. Every probability is built from group-stage form — points, goal difference and goals scored and conceded — not guesswork.

💡 Also read: 2026 World Cup Betting Guide: Odds, Markets & AI Predictions

Round of 32 AI Predictions vs Results: 14 of 16 Correct

Across all 16 Round of 32 ties, the Mysports.AI model correctly picked the team that advanced 14 times — an 87.5% hit rate. The table below shows every fixture, the AI’s pre-match pick, its estimated win probability, and whether the call proved correct (✅) or not (❌). Each probability reflects the chance of advancing, including extra time and penalties.

Date	Result	AI Pick	Win Prob.
28 Jun	South Africa 0–1 Canada	Canada ✅	54%
29 Jun	Brazil 2–1 Japan	Brazil ✅	61%
29 Jun	Germany 1–1 Paraguay (P: 3–4)	Germany ❌	72%
29 Jun	Netherlands 1–1 Morocco (P: 2–3)	Netherlands ❌	58%
30 Jun	Côte d’Ivoire 1–2 Norway	Norway ✅	52%
30 Jun	France 3–0 Sweden	France ✅	78%
30 Jun	Mexico 2–0 Ecuador	Mexico ✅	64%
1 Jul	England 2–1 DR Congo	England ✅	76%
1 Jul	Belgium 3–2 Senegal (AET)	Belgium ✅	56%
1 Jul	USA 2–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina	USA ✅	62%
2 Jul	Spain 3–0 Austria	Spain ✅	74%
2 Jul	Portugal 2–1 Croatia	Portugal ✅	54%
2 Jul	Switzerland 2–0 Algeria	Switzerland ✅	63%
3 Jul	Australia 1–1 Egypt (P: 2–4)	Egypt ✅	51%
3 Jul	Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde (AET)	Argentina ✅	83%
3 Jul	Colombia 1–0 Ghana	Colombia ✅	64%

The only two misses were Germany (72%) and the Netherlands (58%), and both were losses on penalties after 1–1 draws — the exact coin-flip scenarios a probability model can never call with certainty. Just as telling, the AI’s two riskiest calls both landed: it backed Norway (52%) over Côte d’Ivoire and Egypt (51%) over Australia, and both underdogs delivered. That is the value of a probability model — it flags the close calls instead of pretending every match is a lock.

How Mysports.AI Generates These World Cup Predictions

Every prediction on this page is a data-driven estimate, not a gut feeling. The Mysports.AI model weighs each team’s tournament record — points, goal difference, goals scored and conceded — alongside the strength of the opponents they have faced. A team that won its group with a +8 goal difference against three competitive sides is rated far higher than one that scraped through as a best third-placed finisher.

For the 2026 expanded format, that distinction matters more than ever. With 48 teams and eight best third-placed sides reaching the knockouts, several ties pit a dominant group winner against a team that survived on a single point or a slim goal difference. The model treats those as mismatches — which is why France, Argentina and Spain have carried the highest win probabilities from the Round of 32 onward.

No model can guarantee outcomes. Knockout football is shaped by red cards, injuries and penalty shootouts that no dataset fully captures. These AI predictions are best used as a reference point to compare against bookmaker odds, not as a substitute for your own judgement.

Round of 16 AI Predictions: Live Picks & Results

Four of the eight Round of 16 ties are settled, and the AI is three from four so far. Morocco, France, Norway and England have gone through; the model’s only miss was backing Brazil, who were eliminated 2–1 by a resilient Norway side. The four remaining ties — headlined by a Portugal vs Spain heavyweight clash — are predicted below, with Spain and Argentina the model’s strongest picks to reach the quarterfinals.

Date	Fixture / Result	AI Pick	Win Prob.
5 Jul	Canada 0–3 Morocco	Morocco ✅	65%
5 Jul	Paraguay 0–1 France	France ✅	82%
6 Jul	Brazil 1–2 Norway	Brazil ❌	68%
6 Jul	Mexico 2–3 England	England ✅	55%
7 Jul	Portugal vs Spain	Spain	62%
7 Jul	USA vs Belgium	Belgium	52%
8 Jul	Argentina vs Egypt	Argentina	80%
8 Jul	Switzerland vs Colombia	Switzerland	51%

Portugal vs Spain is the tie of the round. Spain topped Group H without conceding a single goal and dispatched Austria 3–0, giving them the model’s edge at 62%, but Portugal’s 2–1 win over Croatia showed they can grind out knockout results. USA vs Belgium is the closest call on the board: home advantage keeps the USA in it, but the model gives Belgium a razor-thin 52% after their extra-time win over Senegal.

Argentina are the round’s clearest favourite at 80%, with Egypt’s penalty-shootout survival against Australia unlikely to trouble a side that won Group J with a perfect nine points. Switzerland vs Colombia is a genuine toss-up between two group winners — the AI leans Switzerland at 51% on their marginally stronger goal difference, but this is the kind of tie that extra time or penalties will likely decide.

The Biggest Upsets of the Knockout Stage

Three results have reshaped the bracket and eliminated teams the AI rated as favourites. Each shows why knockout football rewards the bold underdog.

• Brazil 1–2 Norway (Round of 16) — the shock of the tournament. Norway, powered by their prolific Group I attack, dumped out one of the pre-tournament favourites and booked a quarterfinal against England.
• Germany 1–1 Paraguay, 3–4 on penalties (Round of 32) — the AI’s biggest miss. Germany were 72% favourites but could not break Paraguay down, then fell in the shootout.
• Netherlands 1–1 Morocco, 2–3 on penalties (Round of 32) — Morocco turned a coin-flip tie into a run to the quarterfinals, following it with a 3–0 demolition of Canada.

Quarterfinal Bracket Taking Shape

Two quarterfinals are already confirmed. France vs Morocco (10 July) pits the tournament’s most in-form side against its most resilient underdog, while Norway vs England (12 July) rewards the team that knocked out Brazil with a meeting against Tuchel’s England. The other two last-eight places will be decided by the remaining Round of 16 ties.

On the bottom half of the draw, the AI projects a Spain vs Argentina quarterfinal as the most likely outcome if both navigate their next games — a fixture that would effectively be a final four years early. France remain the model’s overall favourite, having won all four of their matches so far and conceded just twice across the entire tournament.

Who the AI Favours to Win the 2026 World Cup

With Brazil out, the model’s title favourites are France, Argentina and Spain — the three sides combining a dominant tournament so far with a manageable path to the final. France head the list: a perfect record, the meanest defence left in the draw, and a quarterfinal against Morocco that the AI rates them clear favourites to win.

Among the outsiders, Morocco and Norway are the teams the model rates most likely to gatecrash the semifinals. Morocco have already eliminated the Netherlands and Canada, while Norway’s win over Brazil proves their attack can hurt anyone. England, boosted by a 3–2 win over hosts Mexico, sit just behind the top three as the AI’s leading dark-horse challenger for the trophy.

For live, match-by-match probability updates as each result comes in, the Mysports.AI platform recalculates every team’s path to the final after every fixture. You can check the full 2026 World Cup schedule and bracket here to follow the knockout stage as it unfolds.

Bet Responsibly

AI predictions are a decision-support tool, not a guarantee. Knockout football is volatile, and even an 80% favourite loses one time in five — as Brazil’s exit against Norway just proved. Treat every probability on this page as one input among many, set a budget you can afford to lose, and never chase losses. If betting stops being fun, step away and seek support.

FAQ

← Back to Betting Tips